The J2 Brief

The week, read
like a trader.

Market moves, lab notes and shelf stories from the J2 desks in Malmö and Montpellier. A new brief lands every Monday.

Week 36
Monday, October 5, 2026

A single black DRAM chip standing upright on its edge on a pale cream surface, casting a long hard shadow across an empty frame under one low cold light

Strategy

The DDR4 last-time-buy nobody can price.
A decade of cover, bought at the top.

DDR4 8Gb closed at a $46.32 spot average on 30 September 2026, up from $42.45 on 7 August, on a part every major maker has stopped taking mainstream orders for. What Samsung, SK hynix and Micron actually committed to, why the 2026 extension was not a reprieve, and how to size and phase a last-time-buy you can defend to a CFO.

Read this week's brief

DDR4 spot hit $46.32 on 30 September ■ Nexperia's March PCN gave 14 days' notice ■ 1,055 suspect parts logged in 2024 ■ Six semiconductor price notices in five months ■ High-cap MLCCs are quoting 26 weeks ■ DDR4 spot hit $46.32 on 30 September ■ Nexperia's March PCN gave 14 days' notice ■ 1,055 suspect parts logged in 2024 ■ Six semiconductor price notices in five months ■ High-cap MLCCs are quoting 26 weeks ■

Fresh off the wire.

A single tiny black SOT-23 transistor resting on the cut edge of a thick block of stacked paper, the paper edges lit amber by one low raking light against a near-black background

Automotive

The shortage arrived as a PDF. Nexperia's PCN gave you 14 days.

Nexperia's PCN CN-202603019F, issued 13 March 2026, released a Malaysian assembly site with 14 days' notice and five working days to object, while an automotive PPAP on a new site runs for months. What the notice says, why buyers ended up segregating stock by date code, and where Diodes, onsemi and Vishay actually stand in September.

September 22, 2026

A single component reel sealed inside a translucent silver moisture-barrier bag on an empty graphite background, lit from behind so the reel reads as a dark disc through the film, with a thin gold line along the heat seal

Strategy

The broker lot on your line. What actually happened to it.

ERAI logged 1,055 suspect counterfeit and nonconforming parts in 2024, a 25% rise on 2023 and the highest total since 2015, and third-party labs plus independent distributors filed 69% of those reports. What a broker actually does to a reel before it ships, why an AS6081 certificate is not a test report, and the five clauses that change what happens to your lot.

September 10, 2026

August 28 Market intel Six semiconductor price increases in five months of 2026. August 18 Market intel MLCCs stopped being a JIT part. High-cap is at 26 weeks. August 4 Market intel The MCU queue is back. 52 weeks on STM32. July 28 Market intel DDR5 is on allocation. Here’s what that means. July 8 Automotive Automotive silicon has its own rules. June 15 Strategy Stock costs money. So does not having it May 20 Obsolescence The last-time-buy notice arrives on a Friday

EOL watch

When a part dies,
we take notes.

Every month the manufacturers quietly retire hundreds of part numbers. The EOL Watch distills the notices that matter: which last-time-buy windows are closing, and where remaining stock still lives.

PCN digests
Last-time-buy windows
Proven alternates
Where stock remains

The week, readlike a trader.

The DDR4 last-time-buy nobody can price.A decade of cover, bought at the top.

Fresh off the wire.

The shortage arrived as a PDF. Nexperia's PCN gave you 14 days.

The broker lot on your line. What actually happened to it.

Every new brief,in your inbox.

The week, read
like a trader.

The DDR4 last-time-buy nobody can price.
A decade of cover, bought at the top.

Every new brief,
in your inbox.